Assuming that George Monbiot is right about the best available options for reducing greenhouse gases, how likely is it that we (the U.S. or the world) will adopt them in time to avoid global disaster? My guess is that it is very unlikely for the U.S. and somewhat likely for the world (as an average).
Rated as extremely unlikely, very unlikely, likely, somewhat likely, very likely, or extremely likely, here are my guesses about each of the major options. Carbon rationing is extremely unlikely for the U.S. and very unlikely for the world. Micro-generation (home-based generation of heat and electricity) is somewhat likely in the U.S. and likely in the world. Large scale generation of electricity from solar and wind is very unlikely in the U.S. and somewhat likely in the world. Carbon sequestration is somewhat likely in the U.S. and somewhat likely in the world. Enhanced public transportation is very unlikely in the U.S. and likely in the world. Elimination of tourism is extremely unlikely in the U.S. and the world and very unlikely in the world. Finally, curtailing retail stores is very unlikely in the U.S. and somewhat likely in the world.
My confidence in each of the guesses is typically one rating category on either side of those given above. Converted to numbers, I would give my country’s chance of meeting the 90 percent emission reduction target as one in three, and the world’s chance of meeting the target as two in five.
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