Another Alternative Future

I revisited the population projection (see the previous posts), and found a curve fit to consumption that was more realistic, without an increase in error. This version more closely matches the projections based on the previous Living Planet Report, and shows a fall in human population following the decline of populations of other species.

The timing and recommendations are relatively unchanged. A seven percent annual drop in global footprint would keep both catastrophes from happening, though both populations could suffer some loss (such as a seven percent drop in ours, from the current value, before stabilization). A more ambitious ten percent drop would stabilize the population at the 2007 level.

One way to achieve this would be to reduce growth of Gross World Product. I project that over the next forty years, the GWP would need to level out at around $77 trillion (2005 dollars); it is currently at $62 trillion. Any growth above that number would need to be for no-waste products and services.